CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Colt McCoy looks like a reach as The Answer when you take into account the NFL's Final Four QBs were No. 1 picks, or that six of the Elite Eight teams lined up with first-rounders behind center.
Except -- disclaimer alert! -- it's not nearly that simple. Despite draft prospects receiving the kind of scrutiny usually reserved for medical research labs and red carpet fashions at the Oscars, it never has been easy to determine winning QBs, and won't be anytime soon.
The NFL is becoming more and more a quarterback's league. Nobody disputes that. A 3,000-yard passing season is as common as seeing Bill Belichick in a hoodie.
The only other consensus? That there is no other consensus.
I'll see your Ben Roethlisberger, Mark Sanchez, Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers and raise you Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, Cade McNown, David Carr and Joey Harrington.
Of the Final Four in these playoffs, only Rodgers (24th overall) lasted into the second half of the first round. So the secret is landing a QB high in the draft, right?
Well, as the San Francisco 49ers fans think of it, Rodgers was picked 23 spots after their team chose Alex Smith. How's that working out?

Thomas Ondrey / The Plain DealerMcCoy fits what Mike Holmgren and Pat Shurmur want, says Bud Shaw. He's shown the resiliency, toughness, accuracy and mobility required in the West Coast offense.

Before the 2010 draft, a New York Times blog, "The Fifth Down," examined a decade worth of quarterbacks selected in the top 12 picks between 1995-2005. The writer, Luis Deloureiro, came up with three categories -- success, bust and in-between. A bust was a player whose original team was looking for a new quarterback within five years.
The findings: 50 percent busts. That's the top of the draft, relatively speaking.
Green Bay's Rodgers was one of six QBs taken after the 20th pick between 1995-2005. The others: Patrick Ramsey, J.P. Losman, Jason Campbell, Rex Grossman and Jim Druckenmiller. By the criteria, only Rodgers is a success.
I'm not sure why the Top 12 was the cutoff used in the success-bust analysis, but a look back pre-1995 reveals a plethora of unproductive selections: Jack Thompson, Rich Campbell, Art Schlichter, Todd Blackledge, Chuck Long, Kelly Stouffer, Jeff George, Andre Ware, David Klingler, Rich Mirer, Heath Shuler. You get the idea.
You think picking No. 1 would produce a higher return? A look at the seven quarterbacks chosen first overall -- Peyton Manning, Tim Couch, Michael Vick, David Carr, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer and Alex Smith – refutes that.
Nobody can rightly suggest the flip side -- looking for the answer beyond the first round where the investment isn't so risky -- is the better way to go. Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Brett Favre and Joe Montana don't come close to offsetting the number of unsuccessful flyers taken by teams in lower rounds.
When the late Bill Walsh heard criticism for taking Montana as high as the third round, he scoffed. His quote is often cited in the quarterback/draft risk stories written each April.
"Few men are qualified to evaluate the quarterback position. Fewer still are qualified to coach the position."
An organization knowing its offensive identity and finding a quarterback with the corresponding skill set is the safest approach. At least in that regard, McCoy isn't a reach. McCoy fits what Mike Holmgren and Pat Shurmur want. He's shown the resiliency, toughness, accuracy and mobility required in the West Coast offense. He deserves the shot at proving himself gold in the third round.
Not only do the Browns have a lot more pressing needs at the No. 6 pick in the draft, the available quarterbacks, aside from Missouri's Blaine Gabbert, aren't great fits.
Whether McCoy is the answer or not, the comfort comes from the fact that for the first time in a long while the Browns have a front office that looks qualified to evaluate the position and to coach its quarterback of choice in the West Coast offense.