Beacon Journal sports writer
There is a civil war brewing among Browns fans.
A large faction — in fact, the majority — wants Eric Mangini to coach the team next season. His supporters have some good arguments.
The Browns are better than they were last season in virtually every statistical category. They have been competitive and worth watching despite going through three quarterbacks and losing two defensive captains to season-ending injuries. Their largest margin of defeat this season was 18 points; in 2009, they lost by more than 20 points four times. Their locker room is filled with high-character men. Any coach deserves more than two seasons to turn around a team with insufficient talent.
On the other hand, a slightly smaller group of fans wants Mangini to be fired. His detractors have some good arguments, too.
If the Browns (5-10) lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers (11-4) today, they will finish with a four-game losing streak and a record of 5-11 for the second consecutive season. Mangini's offensive philosophy is too conservative. He has a tendency to settle for field goals instead of going for the jugular because he would rather play it safe. His game plans are conducive to close scores, but his team often falters in crunch time, as evidenced by its record of 3-9 in games decided by 10 points or fewer.
So which fans will get their way? Will it be those who are sick of the franchise's revolving door of coaches? Or will it be those who already have had enough of Mangini?
Browns President Mike Holmgren knows. His lips, however, are sealed, at least for now.
With that in mind, let's run through some guesses about what could unfold in the near future and the likelihood of each scenario . . .
Holmgren could ditch the suit (41 percent chance): He has not stopped flirting with the idea of coaching again. For example, this quote created headlines in November after Holmgren was asked about the commitment he made to team owner Randy Lerner: ''I made a promise, and I'm going to stick with it. Now, if I keep wearing a suit or not, we'll see.'' There are other clues, too. Holmgren has laid the organization's foundation and surrounded himself with his top lieutenants, so a transition to coaching wouldn't be rocky if he chose to pursue it. Watch a practice, and he's usually there. This past Wednesday, he appeared to be more engaged than usual as he crept closer and closer to the action. Rookie quarterback Colt McCoy's style fits the West Coast offense, the system that goes hand in hand with Holmgren. Holmgren is 62. He knows his window of opportunity for one last hurrah on the sidelines is closing. His daughters didn't visit from out of town during the holidays, perhaps because the Big Show has been busy preparing for a big comeback.
Holmgren could hire Mangini's replacement (39 percent chance): If this happens, it will probably be one of Holmgren's ''guys.'' NFL Network's Jason La Canfora has reported that sources have identified ESPN analyst Jon Gruden and Carolina Panthers coach John Fox as candidates. Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg's name is often mentioned, too. Gruden and Mornhinweg have worked under Holmgren as assistants. Fox is one of his friends. All four of them share the same agent, Bob LaMonte.
Mangini could stay (20 percent chance): A potential lockout could favor Mangini because his system is already in place and a transition to another coaching staff could be a logistical nightmare if the NFL's offseason schedule shifts. Then again, several coaches will be fired early this week despite the fear of a work stoppage. To receive another chance, Mangini would probably need to compromise by agreeing to adopt a different offense controlled by a new coordinator. Odds are he won't even be offered a stipulation, despite the cries from most of the fans.